Guide To The Super 10 of Politics

We wait for it with anticipation and hype - and, well before it's even over, we've had enough.

Welcome to the 'SUPER 10' of politics - New Zealand's own triennial 'Deal or No Deal'. This week has been politically chaotic, and choosing a few topics carried the risk of ignoring others of equal importance. I've gone for a sporty overview of our big political competition.

So, who are the competitors? There are eight Parties in Parliament, plus two independent MPs. If you're following even a little news you'll have noticed that the competition hype has begun.

The Contestants:

Labour: the current cup holder that has come from behind to win so many times that few will count it out. But with the loss of several experienced players, an aging and limited player catchment, and the tired of its predictable defence-oriented wins - based on the well-tested, but cynical 3D tactic of 'deny-delay-denigrate' - Labour is as likely to pull this one off as limiting liquor sales outlets will affect crime stats.

National: many Kiwis weren't even born when this Party last one the SUPER 10. National has been the favourite in earlier competitions, but gained a reputation for peaking between finals. It can win but its policy rotation policy, tendency for media misfires from individual players - on issues ranging from KiwiSaver to privatisation - and reluctance to build relationships with other teams make it possible for National to again pluck defeat from the jaws of victory.

ACT: like the teams of many small Pacific nations, ACT's performance consistency has been affected by several factors - including an oversupply of impact players, poaching, and a lack of focus on team drills. Even so, its style and substance - especially on taxation, health and national security - have become a mainstream feature of other teams' game plans. Anything is possible from this side in SUPER 10 '08. This has to be the thinking viewer's bet.

NZ First and United Future: both the result of individual fall-outs, or smaller clubs that struggled to stay in competition. Read in isolation, NZ First game stats suggest a team playing a significant part of its game in the middle of the field. On closer analysis, it's evident that data extremes –anti-Asian sentiment on the Right, and the removal of means-testing for significant groups on the Left - create the illusion of a Centre Party.

United Future stats also show significant middle-ground match-play. Unlike NZ First, UF's game plan is based on a boring and flat defence at the centre line - the commonsense cliché - and only trying to score by bringing in kickers on short-term contracts from other single interest groups.

The Greens: the 'Barbarians' team of the political SUPER10 - a slot the Green Party has held since inception. The 'BarBars' is a mixed team of players from many sides. Each competition - even game by game - its approach can, and does, change. This can be seen in the defence of dope and anyone vaguely anti-American alongside a strident attacking line-up on milk, burgers and roads. With the captain set to retire, it's unclear where this side will focus in '08.

The Maori Party: traditional competition rules were re-negotiated in 1996. The Maori Party is a reflection of this change - and could be likened to a League team playing a Union competition. Big and physical play - with tactics that surprise opponents, commentators and spectators alike. This side can switch from liberal free-market tactics, to brutal old-style rhetoric with a quick nod from the captain. This is a team peppered with wild-card players, so prepare to be surprised.

Progressive and Independents: Like any competition, the Super 10 features 'also-ran' players. Some are relics from the early days, and whom voters watch more out of nostalgia than any real form - the New Labour Progressive Alliance Coalition, for example. Others are players who couldn't gain a contract with other teams - they occasionally cope in competition, but are unlikely to be outstanding. But they will provide an occasional distraction throughout SUPER 10 '08.

State of Play
The competition's early rounds, which began with the Budget and continued with counter-plays from other teams, has become a yawn. Competition won't kick-off in earnest until the election date is set, but rhetoric from coaches and captains has been loud, constant and predictable.

New rule changes are being tested - especially the Electoral Finance Act. The Courts will likely turn away criminal cases by the dozen to deal with the many challenges to these new rules that will be brought in the coming weeks. Labour will appreciate the relief this unintended consequence brings for prisons and - depending on how lost Corrections files containing paroled offenders' addresses are used - recidivism rates might plummet as well.

The competition draft - aka Party lists - will be an important early signal of how the teams intend to position themselves. We can expect that, as in previous SUPER10s, we won't get a real feel for things until the quarter-finals start about two weeks out from Election Day.

Labour and National will dominate set-piece plays but, at the breakdown, expect smaller Parties to apply leverage on single issues. The quality of media on important policies will be critical to getting a feel for this. Based on the 'Epsom - Roy Morgan Research' experience of 2005, pollsters will need to re-examine their methodologies or be relegated to the role of competition astrologers. Watch blogs and You Tube to see how the younger audience gets its guidance.

Another feature of SUPER10 is that, from the quarter-finals stage, the remaining teams can draft eliminated teams into their side. This can be the make or break of the competition outcome.

As with TV's 'IDOL' series, spectators can over-ride expert judges with their votes. The primary issue for the public after the reality show knock-out rounds is therefore: "do I want someone else to win, or the incumbent to retain the Cup?" They can then vote on the adjusted line-up put before them by the finalists. Voting for a team says it will support the side you don't want to win, or who won't clearly state its intentions, is not a great bet.

Players and Statistics to Watch
• The competition main event would have to be Helen Clark vs John Key.

• Sir Roger Douglas - Super 10's 'Buck Shelford' is back on recall by ACT. Tough, experienced, wily and left the game far too early first time around.

• Dropped Ball stats - will go down to the wire. Watch for Cunliffe on Health and DHBs that stand up for themselves; Carter on Education and BoTs that stand up for themselves; NZ First's Peter Brown on Immigration and people who can't stand up for themselves.

• Red & yellow cards - likely to be another tough contest between Trevor Mallard, Clayton Cosgrove, Winston Peters, Gerry Brownlee and Hone Harawira.

• Retirement or overseas contracts in the lead-up to, or immediately after, the finals - likely from many senior players, including some captains. Some may take their team.