Heather Roy's Diary

The Campaign.
Today is the last day of the campaign, and tomorrow I am hoping for a good result for ACT.
We feel that our strong suit is in economic issues, and it is in this area that strong political leadership will be required following the election.

During this election campaign there has been an air of unreality as issues were discussed - or frequently NOT discussed in many cases - and some dramatic spending promises made. While these have been duly repeated on newspaper front pages as though they were gospel, those same papers' business sections have reported an international financial situation that has become increasingly critical.

National and Labour spending promises are based on economic assumptions that became obsolete several months ago. Treasury says it is working on an "extreme" scenario, but it could be said that no one's absolutely sure what's going to happen next other than to say we are in a recession and credit is going to get tighter.

In a situation where our production is dropping and credit limited, any spending promises have to be taken with a pinch of salt. The air of unreality I mentioned is the issue of our balance of trade. We run a negative balance of trade as a nation and, unfortunately, New Zealand's trade deficit is one of the larger ones in the world in proportion to our size.

As credit becomes tight the deficit will become difficult to service. Many people talk as if our current difficulties with bankrupt finance companies and frozen mortgage funds are our part of the global banking crisis - but the full impact of the credit crunch has yet to strike. Perhaps that is why Finance Minister Dr Michael Cullen looks so cheerful - because someone else will have to sort out the mess.

With Sir Roger Douglas, ACT has someone who has real experience in dealing with economic crises. When he took over as Finance Minister in 1984, the Reserve Bank had ceased trading because there was nothing left in the kitty.

Instead of looking at the hard issues related to the economy, the coverage of the 2008 campaign has been about who is going with who. Like teenagers talking about dates for a school dance, the talk has been about who's going with John and who's going with Helen. It ignores the problem that Labour and National have very similar policies. Both poll the population regularly and aim their policies at the 'middle' voter.
Both National and Labour supported the Anti-Smacking Legislation, the carbon Emissions Trading Scheme, the Kyoto Protocol and both have blood on their hands with regard to the Resource Management Act.

One astute voter asked why Labour and National didn't go into a 'grand coalition', given their similarity. While it is a fair question, the illusion of difference is important as small Opposition Parties thrive when the large Parties become one.

As things stand, most of the variation between alternative governments is likely to be injected by the smaller coalition partners. I guess that's what makes it interesting to speculate on who is dating who.
The polls vary a great deal in their predictions, but the most recent show Labour losing support. But many dis-affected Labour voters seem to be moving to the Greens, who have ruled out a coalition with National. Adding those Labour and Green votes together leaves National slightly ahead, but in need of an ally or two to make a majority. The press is talking up the Maori Party as the King/Queen-maker, but National's ally could well be ACT. Talk of tactical voting and vote splitting has emerged this week to get the policies and government of one's choice - not just whether it'll be John or Helen.
Next week we will know the answer.

Lest We Forget
At the end of a week where the focus has been on elections, changes and economic stability this quote - which came through my email system this week - seemed particularly appropriate. May we learn the lessons of history.

"The Budget should be balanced.
The Treasury should be re-filled.
Public debate should be reduced.
The arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the
assistance to foreign lands should be
curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt.
People must again learn to work,
instead of living on public assistance."
- Marcus Tullius Cicero, 55BC