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Message to jobs summit: One in five fear for their jobs

Tuesday 24 February 2009, 1:50PM

By New Zealand Business Council for Sustainable Development

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Nearly a fifth of New Zealanders in employment fear they may lose their jobs this year and half of those worry they may not quickly find another.

The most worried are working in transport or storage (only 56% are confident of keeping their jobs), construction (60%), accommodation, café or restaurants, and agriculture, forestry or fishing (68% per cent).

Overall, 75% of people in work believe they will their keep jobs this year. However, 19% believe they will lose theirs and 13% believe they may have difficulty finding another one quickly, according to a February 9-11 ShapeNZ national online survey of 2,852 New Zealanders. Commissioned by the New Zealand Business Council for Sustainable Development, the survey has a maximum margin of error on the national sample of + or - 1.8%.

By income, those least confident they will keep their jobs earn between $20,001 and $30,000 a year (61% think they’ll keep them), followed by those earning $100,001 and $150,000 (68%).

Women are slightly more confident than men of keeping their jobs (78% versus 74%).

Those feeling most secure are farm owners and managers (94% say they will keep their jobs), followed by police, nurses, teachers and service workers (88%) and senior professionals and /Government servants (85%).

Labourers and agricultural and domestic workers (19%), technical, mechanical and skilled workers (23%), clerical and sales employees (19%), and business managers, proprietors and self employed (17%) are the most worried about losing their job and not finding another one quickly.

By age, those most worried about losing their jobs are 25 to 34 year-olds and 55 to 64 year-olds. Feeling most secure are 45 to 54 and 18 to 24 year-olds.

Business Council Chief Executive Peter Neilson says the survey sends a signal to the jobs summit that people in the transport and construction sectors are those most anxious, while many skilled workers and small business owners and self employed feel especially at risk.

"The level of concern over job loss is running more than twice as high as the forecast unemployment rate of 7% by the end of this year. This may be having a chilling effect on investment and spending,” Mr Neilson says.

“The survey indicates the jobs summit comes at the right time. New Zealand hasn’t yet seen the full impact of the downturn in the United States, European Union, and Australia from slower growth in China.

“I think we need to be positive about the future. Most of New Zealand’s banking sector has a double A rating and should be able to continue borrowing and lending. The exchange rate in US dollar terms has fallen from 80 cents to 50 in the past six months, interest rates are well down and countries where the recession is sharpest are spending to boost their economies and shorten the downturn.

“When the upturn comes New Zealand has to be ready with the skills, market and product development to take advantage of the upturn. The world’s population is rising from six to nine billion and the need for high quality protein food rises with it.

“Meantime, we need to try to hold people in work where future prospects are good, like agriculture and new clean technology investment, and support employment in construction with projects having co-benefits, like improving the performance of our housing stock. This will help keep thousands in work in the building sector while reducing household energy bills and making homes healthier.”

Detailed survey results are attached and also available at http://www.nzbcsd.org.nz/story.asp?StoryID=969

ShapeNZ Employment Survey

February 9 – 11, 2009

Survey Results Table (Weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, personal income, employment status and party vote 2008. n= 2851. Maximum margin of error on the national sample +/- 1.8%.
Q43. Which of the following best describes your view of what might happen to your employment this year?

Multichoice - Single Answer Only

A. I believe I will keep my job
B. I may lose by current job but will quickly find another one
C. I may lose my job and may not find another one quickly
D. I will probably lose my job, and have difficulty finding another
E. Don’t know		      
    A B C D E
ALL   75% 3% 10% 3% 5%
             
SEX            
Male   74% 5% 12% 3% 6%
Female   78% 3% 10% 4% 5%
             
AGE GROUP            
35-44 years   76% 4% 14% 2% 4%
45-54 years   82% 4% 10% 2% 2%
25-34 years   72% 2% 10% 4% 12%
55-64 years   72% 3% 12% 8% 7%
18-24 years   82% 7% 6% 4% 1%
65-74 years   73% 7% 13% 4% 3%
Under 18 years   77% 9%   14%  
75 years or over   100%        
             
PERSONAL INCOME            
Between $30,001 and $50,000 per year   80% 3% 10% 4% 3%
Less than $20,000 per year   72% 3% 10% 4% 12%
Between $50,001 and $70,000 per year   81% 3% 11% 1% 4%
Between $20,001 and $30,000 per year   67% 3% 18% 10% 1%
Don't know/ prefer not to say   83% 7% 5% 1% 4%
Between $70,001 and $100,000 per year   73% 13% 11% 1% 2%
Between $100,001 and $150,000 per year   68% 12% 15% 4% 1%
More than $200,000 per year   87%   5%   7%
Between $150,001 and $200,000 per year   50%   33% 9% 7%
             
OCCUPATION            
Clerical/Sales Employee   76% 4% 11% 8% 1%
Teacher/Nurse/Police or other trained service worker   88% 1% 7% 0% 5%
Professional/Senior Government Official   85% 1% 4% 3% 6%
Labourer/Agricultural or Domestic Worker   59% 3% 17% 2% 19%
Business Proprietor/Self-employed   67% 8% 13% 4% 7%
Technical/mechanical/Skilled Worker   72% 4% 17% 6% 2%
Business Manager/Executive   79% 7% 11% 2% 1%
Student   83% 7% 5% 2% 4%
Don't know/prefer not to say   62% 9% 19% 5% 5%
Home-maker (not otherwise employed)   77% 3% 13% 2% 5%
Unemployed/Beneficiary   83% 6% 4% 7%  
Retired/Superannuitant   72%   4% 7% 17%
Farm Owner/manager   94%   6%    
             
MAIN BUSINESS ACTIVITY            
Health and Community Services   86% 2% 5% 1% 6%
Education   85% 2% 8% 3% 3%
Retail Trade   79% 4% 8% 6% 2%
Government Administration or Defence   85% 1% 4% 10% 1%
Personal and Other Services   84% 5% 4% 2% 5%
Manufacturing   73% 4% 17% 7%  
Not applicable / not in paid employment   69% 10% 9% 3% 10%
Wholesale Trade   38% 10% 5% 4% 43%
Agriculture, Forestry or Fishing   68% 9% 14% 4% 5%
Communication Services   80% 5% 8% 3% 4%
Construction   60% 7% 23% 0% 9%
Transport or Storage   56% 2% 36% 3% 4%
Property or Business Services   65% 13% 15% 7%  
Finance or Insurance   90% 1% 5% 4% 0%
Don't know/ prefer not to say   72% 1% 21% 6%  
Accommodation, Cafe or Restaurant   67% 7% 8% 5% 14%
Cultural and Recreational Services   73% 5% 17% 5%  
             
PURCHASE GOODS LEVEL            
Do not participate in purchase decisions   76% 3% 11% 5% 6%
$2,000 to $10,000   81% 4% 10% 3% 2%
Not applicable / not in paid employment   76% 4% 10% 2% 8%
Prefer not to say   71% 4% 5% 5% 15%
$100,001 or more   76% 9% 11% 3% 1%
$20,001 to $50,000   69% 5% 8% 14% 4%
$10,001 to $20,000   78% 2% 14% 2% 4%
$50,001 to $100,000   66% 12% 20% 0% 2%