New Zealanders more optimistic about jobs, expect economic growth within two years

Sixty two per cent of New Zealanders expect the economy to be growing again within the next two years.

Only 7% think it will start growing again in the next six months, and 21% say in the next year, according to a ShapeNZ poll of 2,469 New Zealanders taken over the past four days.

Some 34% say recovery will start in the next two years, and 23% say it will take three years or more.

Business people are more optimistic, with 78% expecting the economy will be growing again within two years.

62% of New Zealanders think it will be three years or more before the unemployment rate starts coming down again. Business people are more optimistic, 55% expecting a fall in unemployment to start in two years not three.

The weighted national online survey, commissioned by the New Zealand Business Council for Sustainable Development, has a maximum margin of error of 2% on the national sample. A sub sample of 541 business people (managers, proprietors, self employed and professionals) has a maximum margin of error of 4.2%.

The survey also finds 16% of New Zealanders in work fear they may lose their jobs in the next year, down from 19% in February.

New Zealanders continue to feel the country is generally heading in the right economic direction (55%), compared with the wrong direction (24%) while 21% don’t know. In February 53% felt the direction was right, 23% wrong and 24% didn’t know.

The jury remains out on the Government’s economic performance: asked to rank it on a scale of 1 to 5 (where 1 means very poor and 5 means excellent), 44% are neutral (3 score), while 29% give it a 4+ rating and 18% rate it as poor (2-).

The public are more optimistic about economic and employment recovery times than some economists who expect a slower recovery because the manufacturing recession in the United States, Japan, China and the European Union has not yet impacted on New Zealand.

ECONOMIC RECOVERY:

Here is when New Zealanders expect economic growth will start again:

In the next
Six months: 7%
Year: 21%
Two years: 34%
Three years: 9%
Four years: 2%
Five years: 5%
More than five years away: 5%
Don’t know: 16%.

New Zealanders think fixing unemployment will lag economic recovery.

Asked when the unemployment rate in New Zealand will start coming down again, 60% say within three years. Only 2% say within the next six months, 16% say within the next year, 30% in two years, 14% in three years, 5% in four years, 5% in five years and 6% in more than five years. 22% don’t know.

PERSONAL JOB SECURITY:
Among those in work, 79% say they’ll keep their job. Some 3% say they may lose it and find another quickly, 11% fear they will lose their job and won’t find another quickly and 2% say they’ll probably lose their job and have difficulty finding another. 5% of people in jobs say they don’t know if they’ll keep or lose them.

JOB SUMMIT EFFECTIVENESS:
On the Government’s February job summit, 38% say it will be effective in producing policies to create or preserve jobs, 31% say it will be ineffective while 23% say it’s too early to tell, and 8% don’t know. Business people are more likely to think the summit will be ineffective (43%) than effective (40%), while 15% say it’s too early to tell and 2% don’t know.

More results are at www.nzbcsd.org.nz and www.shapenz.org.nz