Most New Zealanders want 20%+ emissions reduction target

Almost half of New Zealanders want the Government to set a target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20% or more by 2020.

They also want a larger more ambitious target set if the world’s big emitting countries agree to cut their emissions at December’s Copenhagen negotiations, and a majority wants the National, Labour and Green parties to make a deal to implement an emissions trading scheme (ETS) for the long term.

The Government is indicating it will propose an emission cut target of about 15% at a meeting next month in Bonn, while Greenpeace is campaigning for a 40% cut for a December meeting at Copenhagen where the next world climate change treaty is expected to be outlined.

According to results of a national ShapeNZ online survey of 2,251 New Zealanders this week (July 27-31), commissioned by the New Zealand Business Council for Sustainable Development:

• 49% of New Zealanders want the country to set a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% or more by 2020.
• 21% want reductions of 15% or less. This includes 6% only who want a nil reduction target
• 28% are not sure what target they want.

The most preferred target is 20% (12% of respondents), while an 11 to 15% target has 6% support, and the 36 to 40% target 8%. Some 9% want a 40% plus target.

Two tier target policy:

Asked about the country setting two emissions targets, one to make unilaterally whatever happens in world talks, and a higher one if most of the world’s major emitters agree to emissions reductions at Copenhagen

• 45% agree with the idea that New Zealand should adopt a two-tier emissions reduction target
• 13% disagree
• 20% neither agree nor disagree and
• 19% say they really don’t know
• Among party voters:

o 47% of National party voters agree with adopting a two tier target (8% disagree)
o 47% of Labour voters (8% disagree)
o 68% of Green voters (11% disagree)
o 46% Maori Party voters (13% disagree)
o 61% of Jim Anderton Progressive Party voters agree (5% disagree)
o 56% of United Future voters agree (44% are neutral)
o Act voters are more evenly split: 37% agree, 32% disagree.
o 61% of Jim Anderton Progressive Party voters agree (5% disagree)
o 56% of United Future voters agree (44% are neutral)
o Act voters are more evenly split: 37% agree, 32% disagree.

Support for multi-party agreement on Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)

New Zealanders are also sending MPs a message strongly backing current moves to reach a multi-party agreement to implement an emissions trading scheme for the long-term:

• 51% support a multi party agreement
• 12% oppose
• 19% are neutral and 17% don’t know.

The National (55%), Labour 48%) and Green (47%) parties are the three most preferred to be involved in the multi-party agreement.
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Among National voters:

o 71%National voters want their party in a multi-party ETS agreement
o 72% want the Green party involved
o 58% want the Labour Party involved
o 40% want Act Party involved
o 35% want the Maori Party involved

Among Labour voters:

o 71% want their party involved
o 58% want National involved, and
o 52% Maori Party
o 62% Green Party
o 23% Act Party, involved.

The Business Council this week advised the Government to set a 20% emissions reduction target. While New Zealand’s emissions are 24% above 1990 base levels, forestry is expected to offset this by 2020.

This means the 20% reduction is sought off a zero base, making it achievable, though it will need a “step change” in efforts to use energy more efficiently during the next 11 years, the Business Council’s Chief Executive, Peter Neilson, says.

“The ShapeNZ results indicate broad-based support for the Government to be more ambitious, as climate change negotiations evolve, than the 15% reduction target suggested by Climate Changes Issues Minister Nick Smith and Prime Minister John Key last Sunday and Monday (July 26, 27).

“If more countries commit to taking an emissions reduction target and New Zealand’s concerns about how forestry and agriculture are addressed, our politicians have a mandate to go further,” Mr Neilson says.

“There’s a continuing clear signal from New Zealanders to their MPs to get on with implementing the emissions trading scheme – through a multi-party agreement which will survive several Parliaments.

“This will provide investment certainty for new, job-rich, low-emissions products, services and technology. A price on carbon, for example, will quickly affirm plans to invest billions in new renewable energy projects, like geothermal power plants, and planting new forests.

“This survey also shows New Zealanders understand their country has a role to play in helping the world limit emissions and avoid a temperature rise of more 2 degrees centigrade. If we fail we’ll face massive costs associated with more severe climate changes later,” Mr Neilson says.

Ends

The Business Council believes sustainable businesses are profitable, contribute to social progress and ecological balance – and protect New Zealand’s quality of life. The Business Council’s 64 members jointly employ more than 88,000 people in managing resources, manufacturing, retailing and the service sector. Members contribute annual sales of about $59 billion to the economy, equivalent to 43% of GDP. The Business Council runs a national online survey panel, ShapeNZ, to allow public input on major issues. The panel has more than 14,000 members, is built from purchased lists and is representative of the population as a whole, compared with the 2006 census. ShapeNZ members register and provide demographic and previous party vote information to ensure results can be accurately weighted to reflect the New Zealand population. A report is available here on ShapeNZ methodology. Registration is also available at www.shapenz.org.nz.