Minister Smiths $13 billion credibility gap

A confused Climate Change Minister is using a $13 billion bogeyman to scare New Zealanders about emissions reduction targets, the Green Party said today.

“Sadly, Nick Smith seems to be making up numbers to defend his do-nothing position,” said Green Party MP Jeanette Fitzsimons.

“We’ve laid out a credible plan to reduce our emissions by 2020. In contrast the Minister mis-represented independent reports and won’t reveal what analysis the Government has done.

“How can New Zealanders trust the Minister in these circumstances?”

Dr Smith has repeatedly quoted a $14.5 billion figure from an NZIER-Infometrics report, saying it was the cost of a 40 percent emissions target. However, the report states clearly that it is not about domestic emissions targets and “should not be interpreted as such”.

“The NZIER estimates that a 40 percent reduction would cost New Zealand $1.2 billion, so where does Nick Smith find the other $13 billion?” asked Ms Fitzsimons.

“The Minister also claimed in the House that his departments have done extensive analysis of New Zealand’s options going forward, but where is it?

“New Zealand is about to make a very important decision and deserves an informed and constructive debate rather than distortions and scare-mongering.”

The Green Party’s research was conservative and based on the best available estimates, finding that New Zealand could save three-quarters (or 36 million tonnes) of the carbon emissions it would need to account for under a 40 percent target.

The country would then have to purchase less than 12 Mt (million tonnes) of credits to reach 40 percent at an estimated cost of $294 million at the same $25/tonne price the NZIER used.

“The Minister has misunderstood or misinterpreted the NZIER report. Even if New Zealand purchased the entire 48 million tonnes needed for a 40 percent target at a whopping $200/tonne, we would not reach his $14.5 billion figure,” Ms Fitzsimons said.

New Zealand has choices, Ms Fitzsimons said: “We can have clean energy generation, make our cars more fuel-efficient, make our dairy farms more profitable and invest in forestry before we have to buy credits.

The Green Party research found potential savings in the following places: Electricity 5.25 Mt, Industrial Fuels 1.9 Mt, Transport 4.7 Mt, Agriculture 2.7 Mt, Forestry Planting 10.9 Mt, Forestry Management 10.75 Mt; totalling 36.2 Mt.

The New Zealand Government is due to announce an emissions target for 2020 as part of a global agreement to be reached this year. The next international meeting on emission reduction targets begins in Bonn next week.

Ms Fitzsimons will speak on this during today’s General Debate, slot 10.

The Green Party’s emission reduction plan, Getting there, can be found here:
http://www.greens.org.nz/sites/default/files/BigAffordableClimateChange_0.pdf

The NZIER research can be accessed here:
http://www.nzier.org.nz/includes/download.aspx?ID=103688