Criminal justice forecasts released

Justice Minister Simon Power yesterday released the latest annual criminal justice forecast for 2009-2017.


The forecast is prepared by the Ministry of Justice, Police, and Corrections, and is used to inform long-term planning by justice sector agencies. It estimates long-term trends in numbers of remand and sentenced prisoners.


For the first time, the forecasts also include estimates of future trends in non-custodial sentences: home detention, community detention, intensive supervision, parole, and release on conditions.


Mr Power said the forecast is in line with expectations.


"Though we can expect the number of prisoners to grow, the rate of growth is expected to be slower over the next eight years than it was over the past eight - and more slowly than forecast in 2008."


There are expected to be 10,314 prisoners by 30 June 2017, a 23% increase from 30 June 2009. The increase in the prison population over the preceding eight years was 40%.


"This slower growth is due in part to improvements to criminal court processing times and procedures, which we expect will reduce the length of time accused spend waiting on remand in custody.


"However, the best way to reduce the prison population is by reducing crime and victimisation in the first place.


"To do this, the Government has made addressing the drivers of crime a whole-of-government priority, focusing on improving services for those at risk of being the offenders or victims of the future, and their families."


The forecast takes into account all policies operating as at September last year. It is available on the Ministry of Justice at http://www.justice.govt.nz/moj-whats-new