Auckland home to 38 percent of population in 2031

The Auckland region is projected to account for 60 percent of New Zealand's population growth between 2006 and 2031, with an increase of 570,000 from 1.37 million to 1.94 million, Statistics New Zealand said today. "The Auckland region would be home to 38 percent of New Zealand's population in 2031, compared with 33 percent in 2006," Population Statistics manager Denise McGregor said. Natural increase (births minus deaths) is projected to account for almost two-thirds of the population growth, with the remainder due to net migration gains.

Of New Zealand's 73 territorial authority areas, 44 are projected to have more people in 2031 than in 2006. However, population growth will generally slow over the projection period because of the narrowing gap between births and deaths. The highest growth rates between 2006 and 2031 are expected in Queenstown-Lakes district (an average of 2.2 percent a year) and Selwyn district (2.0 percent). Manukau city and Rodney district (1.7 percent), Waimakariri district (1.6 percent), Tauranga city (1.5 percent) and Franklin district (1.4 percent), are also projected to experience relatively high population growth.

All territorial authority areas will have more older people in the future. In 2031, 34 areas will have more than double the number of people aged 65 years and over, than in 2006. Selwyn district is projected to be home to almost four times the number of people aged 65 years and over in 2031, than in 2006, while Queenstown-Lakes will be home to over three times. Nationally, the number of older people (those aged 65 years and over) is projected to double between 2006 and 2031. "The increase in older people is due to higher life expectancy, accentuated by the baby boomers born during the 1950s and 1960s entering these ages," Mrs McGregor said.

Vince Galvin 24 February 2010

Acting Government Statistician