Fall in manufacturing volume reverses previous gain

The volume of manufacturing sales (seasonally adjusted) fell 2.7 percent in the March 2010 quarter, Statistics New Zealand said today. "This reverses the rise of 2.7 percent in the December 2009 quarter and takes the series to its lowest point in almost 10 years," business statistics manager Ken Smart said. However, because of overall upward price movement caused by the recent surge in dairy product prices, the value of sales rose 0.9 percent.

Driving the overall fall in sales volume was a 10 percent drop in the meat and dairy product manufacturing industry. Despite the drop in volume, price rises, particularly for dairy products, led to a 1.0 percent increase in sales value for the industry. (Prices, as measured by the producers price index, show a 30 percent rise in dairy product prices, and a 4.9 percent rise in meat and meat product prices.)

Excluding the meat and dairy industry, the other manufacturing industries rose 1.3 percent in sales volume in the March 2010 quarter, led by basic metal manufacturing. Ten of the 14 industries showed rises while other food manufacturing had the only significant decrease. With comparatively small price changes in the latest quarter, volume was the main driver of the 1.8 percent ($242 million) rise in the combined value of sales for these industries.

Putting the latest figures into a more long-term context, the trend for the sales volume is flatter than indicated in the previous release and now shows little change for the latest four quarters. The trend for the sales value appears to have stopped falling. Trend movements are subject to revision when more information becomes available.

Cathryn Ashley-Jones 8 June 2010

Acting Government Statistician