Rankings secondary to quarter-final dreams
The desire to secure one of the remaining seven places in the Rugby World Cup 2011 quarter-finals will be the only thing on the mind of many of the teams in action as the pool stages draw to an exciting climax over the weekend.
The prospect of an earlier departure from New Zealand shores than expected, never mind the consequences of defeat for them in the IRB World Rankings, will not come into the equation, even though the outcome of certain matches could set off a number of positional changes.
For this to happen, one or more teams must throw the form book out the window and upset their higher ranked opponents, something that Samoa, Scotland and Italy in particular will be desperate to do in order to keep alive hopes of reaching the knockout phase.
Samoa will be the first to enter the last chance saloon, against defending champions South Africa at North Harbour Stadium on Friday. Eight places separate the Pool D rivals in the IRB World Rankings with a win for second ranked South Africa having no impact on either side’s rating.
However, if Samoa can hand South Africa their first RWC defeat since the 2003 quarter-finals then the Springboks could slump to as low as eighth, by far their lowest standing since the IRB World Rankings were introduced in October 2003.
Samoa, never previously higher than ninth, could climb to sixth depending on the margin of victory and other results. Even in defeat, a bonus point could be enough to see them reach the last eight if their Pacific Islands rivals Fiji can beat Wales and deny the Dragons a bonus point.
Scotland’s 13-12 defeat by Argentina last weekend has put them in danger of failing to qualify for the quarter-finals for the first time in RWC history and even victory over England at Eden Park on Saturday may not be enough to prevent their exit from the tournament.
The Scots can improve their rating as many as three places with a convincing victory over the Auld Enemy in their first meeting on neutral soil, potentially ending the weekend as the higher ranked of the two sides despite lying five places below England in ninth.
An England victory cannot improve their ranking unless South Africa or Australia lose to Samoa and Russia respectively, but a winning margin greater than 15 points can still see Martin Johnson’s men closer to within two hundredths of a victorious Wallabies outfit.
New highs an added bonus
Scotland could improve their rating with defeat if Wales or Argentina lose to the lower ranked Fiji and Georgia on Sunday. If Georgia can build on their first win of RWC 2011 against Romania on Wednesday night and stun Los Pumas at Arena Manawatu, then a new high awaits the Lelos.
This new ranking could be 11th or higher depending on other results, not least a repeat of Fiji’s dramatic defeat of Wales at RWC 2007, which could shoot them from 16th back towards the top 10 in the IRB World Rankings.
Tonga could join Fiji in climbing the rankings, albeit only if they can overcome France in their final Pool D match in Wellington on Saturday, a result which would at worst guarantee them third spot and automatic qualification for RWC 2015 in England.
Fifth ranked France cannot improve their own rating points with victory over Tonga, just as number one side New Zealand and number three Australia cannot with any margin of victory over the significantly lower ranked Canada and Russia respectively.
One match that certainly can impact the rankings is the pivotal one in Pool C between Ireland and Italy in Dunedin. Ireland are ranked five places above their opponents in sixth, but will not be underestimating an Azzurri outfit motivated by a first RWC quarter-final.
Ireland are in the driving seat after beating Australia, with a draw enough to guarantee top spot, but they could miss out altogether if Italy win at Otago Stadium and deny the Irish a bonus point in tandem with a Wallaby win over the brave Russian Bears.
An Irish victory is unlikely to improve their ranking, barring a loss for England or France, but an Italian triumph could see Sergio Parisse and co better or match their highest standing of eighth with a win by more than 15 points or a smaller victory margin and losses for Wales and Argentina.
The IRB World Rankings update every Monday at 12:00 UK time (00:00 Tuesday NZL time).