Winning the World Cup – does it make a difference?

Victoria University experts on whether winning the Rugby World Cup really makes a difference to the election and our national identity.

Dr Peter A Thompson, Media Studies, on the Cup and the Election

"The attention paid to the Rugby World Cup has inevitably displaced some of the media attention from more substantive election issues. If the All Blacks win, the media's attention to the RWC will be extended further, probably narrowing the range of issues that can be meaningfully discussed before voting starts.

"A win will likely produce a temporary 'feel good' period, whereby the seriousness of other socio-economic problems is felt less acutely. This may have some short-term economic influence on consumer confidence (especially at the pub), but it's not going to suddenly create an economic boom.

"A triumph is unlikely to directly affect voting behaviour, although the government may try to associate itself symbolically with the success on the sports-field (e.g. photo opportunities between politicians and the winning team).

"If the All Blacks do win, policy failures related to the Rugby World Cup, such as under-investment in public transport, questions over Rugby World Cup costs to taxpayers and ratepayers, and the government's decision to break budget limitations to support the Cup would probably all be forgiven. So overall, in distracting public concern from more substantial electoral issues, a win would most likely have a conservative influence on undecided voters in favour of the incumbent party.

"It is possible that if the All Blacks lose against France, there could be a mild reversal of this cultural influence with increased pessimism and perhaps greater scrutiny of whether the public expenditure was all worth it."

Dr Marc Wilson, School of Psychology, on the Cup and our national identity

"Do we care about rugby? Yes, and not solely the game itself. Firstly, more than half of the participants in my latest general population study (around 6000 participants) say they are rugby fans. Only 16% of the whole sample say they never watch rugby when it's on TV. More than two thirds agree that it's important that the All Blacks win this world cup.

"Second, rugby represents one of the potential 'sites' around which our national identities cohere. Our research on psychological representations of history indicates that a significant proportion of people consider that the events of the 1981 Springbok Tour are some of the most important in our history. Though it didn't make the top 10 in that study, the 1987 World Cup victory was also commonly mentioned

"Why do we care? I've already given this away. Identity. Several decades of research indicates that we attach some of our self esteem to the groups and things with which we identify - our social identity. When those identities are positively valued (for instance when the ABs win) we get a boost to our self esteem.

"Should we care? It's great when we win, but that doesn't happen all the time, so probably not."