Population to grow, but at slower rate

New Zealand's population is projected to keep increasing, but the growth rate will slow, according to the2006-base national population projections released today by Statistics New Zealand.

This will see the fivemillion population mark surpassed in the late 2020s, but six million unlikely to be attained.

These figures are from mid-range series 5, one of nine different projection series derived to indicate thelikely size and structure of New Zealand's population.

This projection assumes that New Zealand womenwill average 1.9 children in the long-run, that life expectancy will continue to increase, and that net migration ill average 10,000 people a year.

Under this demographic scenario, the number of births will average 60,000 a year between 2007 and 2061,while over the same period the number of deaths will more than double, from 28,000 to 62,000.

The increase in the number of deaths will be caused by a greater number of people in the older ages. As aresult of the closing gap between births and deaths, population growth will slow.

The population grew at anaverage of 1.4 percent a year between 2001 and 2007.

It is expected to grow by an average of 1.0 percenta year between 2007 and 2011, 0.7 percent a year in the 2020s, and less than 0.4 percent a year from the2040s.

In the mid-2020s, people aged 65 years and over are projected to outnumber those aged under 15 years.

Currently there are half a million people aged 65 years and over and about 900,000 children under 15years.

While the number of children is projected to remain relatively stable, those aged 65 years and overare projected to exceed one million by the late 2020s and 1.4 million by the late 2050s.

These trends reflectthe combined impact of sub-replacement fertility, continued gains in life expectancy and the gradual ageingof the large number of people born during the 1950s to early 1970s.