Leading a second green revolution

Originally published in the Dominion Post on 3 February by Dr William Rolleston, Vice-President of Federated Farmers, Chief Executive of South Pacific Sera and Chairperson of the Ministry of Science and Innovation’s Innovation Board

Does agriculture represent the ‘old’ economy or could it form a core part of a new and dynamic one? As a biotechnologist, a medical doctor and Vice-President of Federated Farmers, I know our biological economy has boundless opportunity. Not only does biology produce the food and fibre the world needs but it also lays the platform to create new industries as it starts with what we are truly good at; innovation.

There are seven billion mouths to feed on the planet now and that is expected to grow to over nine billion by 2050 A 2011 United Nations report concluded that to keep pace with global population growth by 2050, developed countries will need to produce 70 percent more food. For the developing world that figure is 100 percent and failure risks unprecedented global disorder. The Arab Spring is one portent to a world without food because it didn’t start over rising sea levels in the Gulf of Tunis, but over the price of bread.

This pressure to increase food production comes at a time when the land area available for food production is in decline due to desertification and urban sprawl. It is something we’ve seen in New Zealand according to recent work by Landcare Research. It seems ten percent of our high quality farmland has been lost to ‘lifestyle blocks’, many of which are not particularly productive. In land terms it is equivalent to well over 100 CraFarms or more than half the land area in dairy production. In 1960, the world had 0.44 hectares in food production for every single person but by 2050, this is forecast to have fallen to 0.15 hectares.

In the 1960’s the green revolution gave agriculture a quantum lift in production. I am not talking about the political movement but the introduction of pesticides, fertiliser and new hybrid seeds. These were not New Zealand inventions but New Zealand farmers and scientists adopted and adapted them to create global leadership. The world needs a second green revolution and New Zealand is ideally placed to lead it, provided we can overcome self-imposed limits.

That the human race is growing by two people every second creates immense opportunity for the biological economy. We must play our part in feeding a growing world and science will help us achieve this. We need to use all our skills and knowledge in the biological and the physical sciences to increase our production and the value of our products.

As a farmer and a scientist, I acknowledge there are environmental constraints in agriculture but our response shouldn’t be to demand that we just do less of what we are doing. Our response should be to seek new ways of achieving our goals through innovation. In other words innovation not deprivation. Solutions will come through a blend of biological and physical sciences; the Greenhouse Gas Research Consortium being one example of this. We also have lessons to learn from organics but our adoption of any organic practices must be led by science rather than dogma and PR. Organics as an industry in its own right is acutely vulnerable to changes in fashion and has taken a hit from the global recession; Fonterra for one is cutting its organic supply base. Sustainable products will be those which underpin our reputation for safe, reliable and high quality food and backed by science using methods, which in themselves, are environmentally responsible.

As a result of greater affluence families are becoming smaller and children, ever more precious to those families. Parents will prioritise safe, reliable and nutritional food for their children and life prolonging products for themselves. This is the qualitative opportunity for New Zealand.

Sciences, such as biotechnology, provide the means to multiply the value of the commodities we excel in producing. Take at recent study supported by Fonterra and published in a British Medical Journal. It found skim milk fortified with naturally occurring dairy ingredients may reduce the frequency and intensity of gout flares. It is estimated gout affects one percent of people in China or 15 million sufferers. While the commercial product is still several years away, there is one in development.

If we are to be true leaders in agriculture in leading a second Green Revolution, we mustn’t constrain ourselves to old technologies. We should instead be prepared to consider new technologies such as genetic modification and nanotechnology where we can be certain it will benefit our economy and our environment.

In September, the Agricultural Biotechnology International Conference will be held in Rotorua. As a biotechnologist, this is our equivalent to the Rugby World Cup because it gives New Zealand a global shop window that could yield investment in New Zealand-led science. A caveat hinges on having the right science ecosystem allowing research and its outcomes to be commercially realised here, in New Zealand. Agriculture provides the economy with its skeleton and it is up to the physical but especially the biological sciences, to make the most of our core competitive advantage represented by land, soil, water and people. Agriculture provides the springboard and critical mass for both our biological and physical science economies to flourish. We should embrace and celebrate this. When we finally do, it will drive our economy much higher up the value chain.