Earthquakes population loss bottoms out

‘Middle of the range’ estimates for Greater Christchurch’s resident population are that it has fallen by 2800 in the last year, but this loss appears to have happened in the last part of 2011. The previous year’s loss was 6500.

Continuing gains to Waimakariri and Selwyn districts during the year were offset by a loss in Christchurch City, which is estimated to have declined by around 4700.

Statistics New Zealand estimates for June 2012 – the official annual snapshot – are due out later in October. However, because Greater Christchurch councils are facing unprecedented patterns of change, they have commissioned quarterly estimates to indicate clearly what is happening in the sub-region.

“It’s now over five years since the last Census, and the upcoming March 2013 one was delayed due to the earthquakes with results not available until late 2013 at the earliest,” said Waimakariri District Mayor David Ayers. “For good planning we need to be monitoring change more closely than that”.

Mayor Ayers is Deputy Chairperson of the Urban Development Strategy Implementation Committee charged with overseeing growth management planning for Urban Development Strategy partners.

Statistical analyst James Newell, who developed the methodology from which the quarterly estimates are derived, explained there will be inevitable differences when these estimates are compared with official numbers later this month.

“What’s more important is to understand the reasons for, and the directions of, population change on a regular basis, and this work contributes to that understanding,” said Mr Newell.

“While births and deaths are recorded, and gains and losses to and from the region from international migration measured, the exchange of population to and from Greater Christchurch in relation the rest of New Zealand is the most uncertain element to estimate.

Margins for error from the upper to lower bounds are wide due to the uncertainty around internal migration affecting Greater Christchurch and the Council areas within it.”

The Greater Christchurch report will be available soon at www.greaterchristchurch.org.nz